South Florida in Forecast Track of Hurricane Elsa

FORT LAUDERDALE, FL—Elsa became the season’s first hurricane Friday morning July 2, 2021, and South Florida along with most of the rest of the state remains in the forecast path for a possible landfall early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Elsa is located 20 miles west-southwest of Barbados, and is moving west-northwest at a brisk 28 mph. An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours as it steams toward the Florida, the hurricane center said.

Hurricane-force winds extend 25 miles from Elsa’s center and Tropical Storm-force-winds extend 140 miles.

Elsa is a Category 1 hurricane with wind speeds of 75 miles per hour and gusts up to 86 mph. Hurricanes begin with a wind speed of 74 mph.

All of South Florida remains in the cone of Hurricane Elsa and the system could hit the region early next week as a tropical storm or even a hurricane.

It’s too early to determine whether Hurricane Elsa could hit South Florida as a hurricane.

“This forecast is most complicated by land interaction,” meteorologist Jonathan Belles of The Weather Channel said in an e-mail. “We don’t know exactly how this system will interact with Hispaniola, Jamaica or Cuba this weekend. The more interaction Elsa has with those countries, the weaker the storm will be as it gets closer to Florida.

“A secondary factor that we’ll be watching with this system is its forward speed. It is being shoved westward at a much faster clip than most systems can sustain themselves at, but this forward speed should slow down somewhat. Wind shear is a concern with this storm too, but to a lesser degree than the other two factors.”

Forecasters mentioned Elsa’s possible development into a hurricane Thursday, but there was no hint it would develop so quickly.

“I would say at this point, with a Tropical Storm being forecast, it isn’t unreasonable for South Floridians to be ready for the potential of a Category 1 hurricane knocking on our door early next week,” said Robert Garcia, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center.

“It is something that can’t be ruled out, and folks should be aware that’s something we may have to prepare for here during the holiday weekend.”

Garcia said Thursday that any local impacts from Elsa would come after the July 4 holiday. That means the scheduled fireworks shows in Broward and Palm Beach counties should be unaffected by Elsa unless the forecast changes.

Elsa is a record-breaker, becoming the earliest-forming fifth storm in recorded history. The previous record was held by Tropical Storm Eduardo, which formed on July 5, 2020.

Whichever way the system goes, Elsa seems sure to bring rain to already-saturated South Florida—and it could bring lots.

The current forecast path takes Elsa over portions of the Windward Islands (where the western Caribbean Sea meets the north Atlantic Ocean) and southern Leeward Islands (where the Caribbean Sea meets the western Atlantic Ocean) today. Its forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean sea this evening and tonight, and near the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday.

By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to be near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

However, the National Hurricane Center has been quick to add the forecast is uncertain beyond three days.

Elsa is expected to produce between 3 to 6 inches of rain, and perhaps as much as 10 inches, in parts of the Windward and Leeward Islands, including Barbados.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and Grenadines.

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for Martinique, the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the Haitian border, and the entire Haitian coast.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm watch is in effect for Grenada, Saba and Sint Eustatius, Jamaica and Dominica.

The hurricane center said additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today for places such as hurricane warnings for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storms have wind speed between 39 and 73 mph.

Elsa was being watched carefully by officials in Surfside, as well.

”Any bad significant wind could potentially bring down the remaining part of that building,” T.J. Lyon, chair of Florida’s Statewide Emergency Response Plan, told weather.com. ”Any bad weather is going to have a significant impact on the incident scene.”

One forecast model has Elsa turning north after reaching Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but other models have Elsa continuing into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

“The discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual,” according to the hurricane center.

The determining factor of where Elsa goes, and when it turns north from its current westward direction, is the Bermuda High, a high-pressure system that is the storm’s steering mechanism. It’s essentially what deflects storms from Florida or allows them near.

“This influence will last into the weekend before we start to reach the western edge of the Bermuda High and begin to turn northward,” Belles said.

“If the Bermuda High is strong, storms often go westward into Central America,” he said, “but if that Bermuda High is weaker, storms can recurve northward over the Greater Antilles and out into the Atlantic. It appears that Elsa will split this envelope of climatology down the middle.

Last year’s first hurricane, Hanna, developed into a hurricane and made landfall in Texas on July 25.

____

©2021 South Florida Sun Sentinel. Visit at sun-sentinel.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.