Claims-Based Model Effectively Identifies Early COPD

A predictive, claims-based model can distinguish patients at-risk for early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from patients not at risk, allowing for early intervention, according to a poster presentation at AMCP Nexus 2017.

Srinivas Annavarapu, MBBS, PhD, of Comprehensive Health Insights, and colleagues studied a claims-based predictive model in order to determine its ability to effectively identify patients likely to have undiagnosed COPD. 

“A claims-based model to predict patients likely to have undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was previously developed by [study coauthors],” Dr Annavarapu and colleagues wrote in the poster presentation. “This study evaluates the performance of this claims-based predictive model using prospectively collected spirometry data.”

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The researchers studied Medicare Advantage/Humana claims data for patients aged 40 to 89 years prescription drug coverage (MAPD) or a commercial health plan with no COPD codes on their records. They stratified patients into likely and not likely to have undiagnosed COPD, and then invited patients within 20 miles of the study center to receive COPD diagnostic tests. Diagnostics were compared to the results from the predictive model to gauge accuracy. 

The model predicted that 3213 were likely to have undiagnosed COPD and 3774 were not likely within 20 miles of the study center. The researchers were able to assess 549 of these patients in person. 

They found that the predictive model was able to predict patients not at risk for COPD 80% of the time, and was able to predict those at risk for COPD one out of three times.

The researchers concluded that “early diagnosis of COPD may help in better management of the disease and may help prevent exacerbations.”

—David Costill

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