New Cases of Early Age-Related Macular Degeneration to Top 39 Million by 2050

Global new cases of early age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are estimated to increase from 32.44 million in 2020 to 39.05 million by 2050, and cases of late AMD from 5.24 million to 6.41 million, according to projections published in Gerontology.

“Continued growth of the aging population will result in increasing numbers of cases of visual impairment related to AMD,” researchers wrote. “Slowing the incidence of AMD, along with controlling its risk factors and developing future therapies, is required to reduce potential visual impairment burdens.”

Systematic review and meta-analysis of 30 longitudinal population-based observational studies revealed several insights into projected AMD incidence over the next 30 years as well as AMD risk factors. Among them were pooled annual early and late AMD incidence rates of 1.59 and 0.23 per 100 person-years, respectively, and an annual AMD progression rate of 5.5 per 100 person-years. The global annual incidence of AMD differed, however, when stratified by subgroups, including regions and countries.

“The prediction the number of new cases of AMD is not equal across the globe,” researchers wrote.

The meta-analysis also identified smoking as an independent risk factor for both early and late AMD. Age, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and alcohol consumption were risk factors for early AMD alone.

“Slowing the incidence of AMD, along with controlling its risk factors and developing future therapies, is required to reduce potential visual impairment burdens,” researchers advised. “Overall, this review provides useful information for the conceptualization and development of major public health strategies, such as prevention programs for AMD based on risk factors analysis.”

Reference:
Wang Y, Zhong Y, Zhang L, et al. Global incidence, progression, and risk factors of age-related macular degeneration and projection of disease statistics in 30 years: a modeling study [published online ahead of print September 21, 2021]. Gerontology. doi:10.1159/000518822