Obesity Projected to Affect Half of US Adults By 2030

Nearly 1 in 2 US adults are projected to have obesity by 2030, according to new research published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups,” researchers wrote.

They arrived at their conclusion after assessing body mass index (BMI) data from 6,264,226 adults aged 18 years or older who had participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey from 1993 to 1994 and from 1999 to 2016. Data from 57,131 adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination survey were also included in the analysis.

The prevalence of 4 BMI categories from 1990 to 2030 were estimated, which included:

• Underweight or normal weight (BMI of less than 25 kg/m2)
• Overweight (BMI of 25 to less than 30 kg/m2)
• Moderate obesity (BMI of 30 to 35 kg/m2)
• Severe obesity (BMI of at least 35 kg/m2)

Ultimately, findings indicated with high predictive accuracy that nearly 1 in 2 (48.9%) adults will have obesity by 2030. Notably, he prevalence of obesity is projected to be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state.

The findings also suggest that an estimated 1 in 4 (24.2%) adults will have severe obesity by 2030, and its prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. Severe obesity is projected to become the most common BMI category across the United States among women, non-Hispanic black adults, and low-income adults (27.6%, 31.7%, and 31.7%, respectively).

—Christina Vogt

Reference:
Ward ZJ, Bleich SN, Cradock AL, et al. Projected US state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity. N Engl J Med. 2019; 381:2440-2450. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1909301.